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Friday, January 10, 2014

EUR/USD: support holding; NFPs on tap

EUR/USD is resting on support from the trend-line up from the July lows, and the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3550. Overall the short-term trend is in doubt and possibly now slightly more bearish. There was the breakdown below the neckline of the double top at the highs, and the 4-hour chart is showing 2 lower lows and 2 lower highs, indicating a probable short-term bearish reversal. The trend-line and pivot remain the last major levels of support holding back a complete reversal. A break below 1.3530 would probably provide confirmation of such a continuation as well as definitive evidence for a break below the trend-line. The next target down is at about 1.3445, which is the target from the double-top. A more bullish outlook would result from a move above the 1.3655 highs. 

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